College Women's Probabilistic Bid Allocation
2025-26 Season

Overall Bid Allocation | Step-by-Step Breakdown | Team Statistics | Probabilistic FAQ

Overall Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
1 Atlantic Coast 1.44 North Carolina 100.00%,   Georgetown 24.10%,   Virginia 20.00%,  
1 Great Lakes 0.55 Notre Dame 47.90%,   Michigan 6.70%,   Michigan State 0.40%,  
1 Metro East 0.00
2 New England 2.87 Tufts 100.00%,   Northeastern 98.90%,   Vermont 87.90%,  
1 North Central 1.17 Carleton College 100.00%,   Wisconsin 15.90%,   Minnesota 1.20%,  
5 Northwest 5.01 Washington 100.00%,   Western Washington 100.00%,   Oregon 100.00%,   British Columbia 100.00%,   Victoria 99.60%,   British Columbia [B] 1.70%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.02 Pennsylvania 100.00%,   Ohio State 1.30%,   Ohio 0.50%,  
1 South Central 1.07 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 7.20%,   Colorado State 0.10%,  
1 Southeast 0.83 Georgia 75.20%,   Florida 7.50%,  
6 Southwest 6.04 California-Santa Cruz 100.00%,   California-San Diego 100.00%,   Stanford 100.00%,   UCLA 100.00%,   California-Davis 99.50%,   Cal Poly-SLO 96.20%,   California-Santa Barbara 7.20%,   Southern California 1.00%,  

Step-by-Step Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 1.441 0.550 0.000 2.868 1.171 5.013 1.018 1.073 0.827 6.039
Autos (all @ 1) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 4.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 5.039
Southwest (@ 2) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 4.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 4.039
Southwest (@ 3) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 4.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 3.039
Northwest (@ 2) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 3.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 3.039
Southwest (@ 4) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 3.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 2.039
Northwest (@ 3) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 2.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 2.039
Southwest (@ 5) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 2.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 1.039
Northwest (@ 4) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 1.868 0.171 1.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 1.039
New England (@ 2) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 0.868 0.171 1.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 1.039
Southwest (@ 6) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 0.868 0.171 1.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 0.039
Northwest (@ 5) 0.441 -0.450 -1.000 0.868 0.171 0.013 0.018 0.073 -0.173 0.039
Total 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 1 6

Team Statistics (Sorted by bid fraction)

Rank Team Bid Fraction Rating Uncertainty High Sim Low Sim Record
1 Carleton College 1 2681.88 64.78 1 3 19-0
2 British Columbia 1 2516.48 51.16 1 6 14-5
3 California-Santa Cruz 1 2441.04 107.39 1 14 24-2
4 Stanford 1 2395.53 47.47 2 7 18-8
5 North Carolina 1 2308.87 54.37 3 9 17-2
6 Tufts 1 2288.29 65.79 2 9 10-2
7 Washington 1 2265.18 49.53 3 9 15-5
8 Colorado 1 2143.49 56.03 5 14 11-9
9 Pennsylvania 1 2070.28 42.49 7 16 18-2
10 Western Washington 1 2064.49 70.06 6 17 7-7
11 California-San Diego 1 2054.76 36.96 7 15 12-10
12 Oregon 1 2011.19 34.52 8 17 8-13
13 UCLA 1 1969.67 53.19 8 20 17-11
14 Victoria 0.996 1971.02 66.41 8 25 11-9
15 California-Davis 0.995 1946.40 68.56 7 25 10-11
16 Northeastern 0.989 1899.44 61.17 8 24 13-6
17 Cal Poly-SLO 0.962 1841.85 41.35 13 23 9-12
18 Vermont 0.879 1820.29 49.93 13 27 8-10
19 Georgia 0.752 1800.59 61.76 12 33 7-6
20 Notre Dame 0.479 1755.53 79.07 13 40 18-8
21 Georgetown 0.241 1691.03 95.89 14 51 6-7
22 Virginia 0.2 1699.87 77.08 13 45 6-8
23 Wisconsin 0.159 1693.15 71.05 14 41 10-9
24 Florida 0.075 1638.09 82.51 16 50 17-4
25 Texas 0.072 1669.31 65.05 16 40 10-10
26 California-Santa Barbara 0.072 1669.09 59.32 17 47 5-16
27 Michigan 0.067 1667.02 63.80 16 44 7-13
28 British Columbia [B] 0.017 1617.98 70.01 18 48 10-1
29 Ohio State 0.013 1554.51 89.24 18 55 8-5
30 Minnesota 0.012 1624.62 57.44 18 43 4-9
31 Southern California 0.01 1524.22 97.35 17 61 18-7
32 Ohio 0.005 1527.27 92.06 19 59 7-5
33 Michigan State 0.004 1338.28 139.30 19 102 12-2
34 Colorado State 0.001 1338.38 137.94 20 93 8-4
35 Davenport 0 1645.67 171.81 8 94 9-4
36 Utah 0 1571.01 57.17 22 49 6-13
37 Washington University 0 1548.71 53.45 23 49 11-8
38 Liberty 0 1519.42 56.84 22 56 12-8
39 California 0 1514.93 59.30 23 52 14-19
40 South Carolina 0 1513.52 65.94 22 53 7-6
41 St Olaf 0 1512.55 63.68 24 53 12-1
42 Carleton College-Eclipse 0 1498.50 44.34 26 51 12-6
43 Haverford/Bryn Mawr 0 1489.25 65.50 25 57 17-2
44 Middlebury 0 1471.39 159.64 10 95 13-3
45 Brigham Young 0 1460.58 70.68 24 60 1-15
46 William & Mary 0 1421.59 86.34 23 73 5-7
47 Whitman 0 1393.34 120.32 20 88 10-2
48 James Madison 0 1386.20 129.68 21 86 11-2
49 Tennessee 0 1369.24 82.14 28 75 17-1
50 North Carolina-Wilmington 0 1366.19 88.55 28 78 10-4
51 Wesleyan 0 1365.61 184.03 16 141 7-3
52 Penn State 0 1352.72 73.42 32 73 7-6
53 Brown 0 1351.82 75.99 31 80 12-8
54 Oregon State 0 1302.83 92.16 27 85 12-5
55 Wellesley 0 1293.07 114.72 23 104 14-4
56 Pittsburgh 0 1291.39 48.77 44 70 9-10
57 McGill 0 1287.27 76.06 35 78 4-8
58 Harvard 0 1274.24 107.05 33 96 11-2
59 Rice 0 1269.99 99.03 34 88 11-1
60 California-Irvine 0 1230.56 82.82 38 88 14-9
61 Macalester 0 1215.66 84.04 44 99 8-4
62 Kansas 0 1190.65 112.30 37 118 7-5
63 Arkansas 0 1179.69 88.14 43 107 8-3
64 Santa Clara 0 1168.99 104.85 41 109 10-3
65 North Carolina State 0 1160.78 87.03 40 110 9-5
66 Cornell 0 1126.80 83.83 45 118 3-9
67 Marquette 0 1125.63 96.94 47 120 7-6
68 Portland 0 1125.53 67.40 50 100 9-9
69 Vermont [B] 0 1121.48 180.87 25 141 6-1
70 Colorado College 0 1120.85 87.33 42 108 8-11
71 Nevada-Reno 0 1118.17 83.49 51 117 13-6
72 Columbia 0 1113.09 88.18 44 112 5-8
73 Georgia Tech 0 1109.62 103.90 46 109 7-7
74 Case Western Reserve 0 1107.93 72.28 49 103 6-13
75 NYU 0 1099.62 80.45 45 116 6-4
76 Kenyon 0 1093.21 73.50 53 105 6-5
77 Winona State 0 1090.43 78.07 53 109 10-6
78 Lewis & Clark 0 1065.52 74.19 54 110 10-9
79 Oberlin 0 1055.32 96.97 49 119 8-5
80 Grand Canyon 0 1051.82 70.64 50 111 8-5
81 Yale 0 1048.70 83.41 54 114 6-5
82 Emory 0 1045.96 84.51 53 118 6-7
83 Puget Sound 0 1041.84 54.54 61 107 5-5
84 Missouri 0 1033.58 87.97 54 116 11-6
85 Clemson 0 1017.13 85.43 56 116 7-7
86 Illinois 0 1016.07 89.26 57 120 9-7
87 Arizona State 0 1003.50 66.13 63 114 12-9
88 Mount Holyoke 0 1001.54 80.27 59 126 8-8
89 Union (Tennessee) 0 996.81 78.56 58 125 10-1
90 Rochester 0 989.63 161.49 47 153 8-1
91 American 0 985.16 98.02 54 129 6-5
92 Saint Louis 0 973.69 69.01 57 130 7-5
93 Dartmouth 0 967.27 99.30 50 131 4-2
94 SUNY-Buffalo 0 961.85 102.14 54 136 4-7
95 Virginia Tech 0 934.78 67.11 62 125 6-7
96 Cedarville 0 932.13 69.19 68 127 8-5
97 San Diego State 0 931.92 54.50 71 121 17-10
98 Williams 0 926.73 69.98 71 128 13-8
99 MIT 0 925.46 73.98 66 127 4-8
100 Boston University 0 917.33 84.29 61 127 10-3
101 Swarthmore 0 915.45 100.88 62 136 4-4
102 Simon Fraser 0 893.61 75.68 71 131 3-3
103 Central Florida 0 884.60 85.66 66 132 10-8
104 Duke 0 882.58 67.86 73 136 6-7
105 Jacksonville State 0 856.51 71.80 76 135 15-5
106 Carnegie Mellon 0 847.83 63.17 78 131 4-8
107 Northwestern 0 845.59 98.76 65 156 9-10
108 Occidental 0 839.70 61.05 76 131 10-10
109 Bates 0 824.65 80.79 68 153 6-7
110 Connecticut 0 823.03 161.88 54 166 1-5
111 Georgia College 0 820.98 75.27 83 140 7-7
112 South Carolina [B] 0 814.19 52.10 87 136 3-4
113 SUNY-Binghamton 0 812.88 96.07 70 144 4-9
114 Miami (Florida) 0 812.52 75.55 83 142 7-6
115 West Chester 0 808.52 117.73 65 163 6-6
116 Maryland 0 793.90 62.45 89 141 2-11
117 Appalachian State 0 793.46 125.63 65 163 2-5
118 Vanderbilt 0 768.29 61.80 97 144 9-3
119 California-San Diego [B] 0 767.26 77.16 88 147 7-6
120 Lehigh 0 761.16 104.00 80 159 10-5
121 Rhode Island 0 748.66 73.95 88 148 8-5
122 Richmond 0 734.37 99.24 85 158 1-4
123 Trinity 0 732.69 57.61 98 143 9-8
124 Montana 0 722.73 88.18 85 157 4-0
125 Iowa 0 714.11 68.71 98 152 4-8
126 Northern Arizona 0 710.44 70.75 95 151 3-4
127 Purdue 0 690.61 70.58 96 163 6-12
128 SUNY-Geneseo 0 685.47 77.22 93 164 3-1
129 George Washington 0 663.76 105.17 83 164 6-6
130 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 658.75 87.24 90 165 6-9
131 Iowa State 0 645.98 77.95 108 161 8-8
132 Texas-Dallas 0 629.38 67.24 110 161 3-8
133 Rutgers 0 627.25 110.33 88 168 5-6
134 Massachusetts 0 624.51 175.69 62 186 3-4
135 Boston College 0 624.44 137.74 84 174 7-7
136 Indiana 0 601.10 119.19 90 173 3-3
137 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 595.90 41.03 122 156 5-1
138 Davidson 0 593.66 58.08 116 160 6-8
139 Cincinnati 0 591.47 123.91 94 176 1-5
140 Washington [B] 0 589.05 85.11 106 168 2-2
141 Skidmore 0 589.02 62.55 117 159 6-5
142 Pacific Lutheran 0 583.05 47.91 118 157 5-5
143 Michigan [B] 0 580.24 68.70 111 164 9-3
144 Florida State 0 577.75 83.75 111 163 10-9
145 Dayton 0 569.89 153.99 81 184 3-3
146 Chicago 0 543.15 68.60 121 165 3-9
147 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 536.31 46.90 129 161 4-8
148 Georgia [B] 0 534.73 71.13 117 167 8-9
149 Truman State 0 534.31 79.03 113 170 8-4
150 Denver 0 528.78 64.43 125 166 5-8
151 Tufts [B] 0 520.91 47.82 131 163 1-3
152 Claremont 0 510.45 54.22 129 165 8-11
153 Montana State 0 501.36 45.41 131 163 3-6
154 Cal Poly-SLO [B] 0 480.56 57.82 126 168 5-7
155 Tulane 0 457.03 66.23 128 173 5-7
156 UCLA [B] 0 454.84 62.52 127 173 7-13
157 RIT 0 453.02 124.75 108 185 0-6
158 Stanford [B] 0 424.99 246.12 61 206 2-5
159 Grand Valley 0 415.39 161.56 94 205 3-4
160 LSU 0 396.30 75.78 133 176 6-12
161 Missouri State 0 366.91 62.51 141 177 3-3
162 Berry 0 366.88 90.98 128 186 6-5
163 Loyola-Chicago 0 354.31 85.58 131 186 6-7
164 Wake Forest 0 344.10 73.68 141 181 6-6
165 Texas State 0 328.99 81.10 139 190 3-8
166 Temple 0 327.28 168.83 108 203 2-4
167 Air Force 0 293.79 80.81 145 190 1-2
168 Brown [B] 0 267.14 55.63 156 184 0-5
169 Florida [B] 0 251.19 66.53 154 191 2-11
170 Ithaca 0 248.06 92.38 145 193 4-5
171 California-Davis [B] 0 247.41 82.37 149 193 4-9
172 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 245.79 109.24 144 197 2-8
173 Seattle 0 230.71 118.17 136 197 0-7
174 North Carolina [B] 0 225.65 100.94 146 198 2-2
175 Harding 0 193.04 88.23 156 197 2-3
176 Syracuse 0 172.82 99.28 154 199 2-5
177 Wisconsin [B] 0 168.69 99.88 148 202 6-6
178 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 108.88 69.98 164 198 5-7
179 Auburn 0 107.21 91.30 159 201 2-4
180 Washington University [B] 0 89.75 52.25 169 200 5-7
181 Minnesota [B] 0 83.27 95.34 163 202 2-8
182 Georgetown [B] 0 80.19 115.17 159 208 2-5
183 Arizona 0 79.84 99.00 160 205 0-6
184 Alabama 0 56.69 65.40 166 202 0-5
185 Northeastern [B] 0 39.00 118.12 153 205 5-7
186 California-Santa Barbara [B] 0 32.73 189.03 131 214 1-5
187 Colorado College [B] 0 30.12 160.11 144 212 2-3
188 Utah [B] 0 21.60 49.62 177 203 0-4
189 Notre Dame [B] 0 16.47 87.85 167 206 4-14
190 New Hampshire 0 11.80 113.50 165 209 2-10
191 Mississippi State 0 -6.34 156.23 157 212 1-9
192 California [B] 0 -9.14 177.79 143 213 0-12
193 South Florida 0 -23.43 133.08 155 210 0-12
194 Texas [B] 0 -25.93 107.98 168 209 1-10
195 Carleton College [C] 0 -51.63 76.20 178 208 2-3
196 Grinnell 0 -52.46 83.98 173 209 3-6
197 Southern California [B] 0 -55.15 178.82 155 214 1-6
198 Cal State-Long Beach 0 -97.78 204.39 133 215 0-6
199 Delaware 0 -127.67 104.02 172 213 3-2
200 Cornell [B] 0 -131.74 187.51 148 215 1-5
201 Towson 0 -218.58 181.77 163 218 1-4
202 Colorado [B] 0 -240.71 167.09 170 215 1-4
203 Emory [B] 0 -253.71 124.85 175 214 1-10
204 Colby 0 -258.87 182.52 158 216 1-11
205 Knox 0 -272.70 185.34 170 220 2-5
206 California-San Diego [C] 0 -309.39 195.55 162 217 0-12
207 Johns Hopkins 0 -311.72 73.89 196 214 4-1
208 St Olaf [B] 0 -344.85 296.14 131 220 0-6
209 Illinois [B] 0 -360.39 100.95 195 215 2-10
210 Catholic 0 -422.24 135.70 186 218 3-2
211 Franciscan 0 -428.19 250.27 169 220 0-6
212 Colorado Mines 0 -523.86 312.22 152 220 0-6
213 Connecticut College 0 -575.49 416.78 111 220 0-3
214 Texas A&M 0 -587.43 122.41 203 220 0-5
215 DePaul 0 -739.52 64.12 210 219 0-9
216 Messiah 0 -833.62 60.55 212 220 2-3
217 American [B] 0 -846.08 114.49 211 220 2-3
218 Vermont [C] 0 -951.94 462.04 161 220 0-7
219 Dickinson 0 -969.35 216.04 206 220 0-7
220 William & Mary [B] 0 -1000.33 77.80 214 220 1-4